May 24, 2025
Fossil Fuels Fall Below 50%: A Turning Point or Temporary Dip?
March 2025 was a record-breaking month for fossil fuel power generation. It was record setting in the sense that the total amount of electricity generated by fossil fuels across the U.S. fell below 50%. In addition, all renewable sources combined overtook fossil fuels as the number one power generation source. But will it last?
Raw Data Doesn't Tell the Whole Story
Fossil fuels have long been the backbone of U.S. power generation. Even as coal continues down the long road to extinction, natural gas and oil have kept pace with demand. They have done so for decades. So, learning that fossil fuels made up less than half of all power generation in March means something important. But caution is warranted here. Raw data doesn't tell the entire story.
March data shows that fossil fuels accounted for just 48.9% of the total power generation in this country. But the numbers include small-scale operations that may not be connected to the grid. When we look at power generation exclusively among utilities, the number goes up to 64%.
Another thing to consider is the time frame. March is always an interesting month for power generation because of warming daytime temperatures and persistently cool overnight temperatures. Heating systems in colder climates don't kick on as often while AC units in warmer climates are not working nearly as hard as they will in the summer.
It could be that the numbers will return to what is considered normal for May. And by the time we reach the heat of the summer in July and August, fossil fuels could again be shouldering a larger part of the total power generation burden.
Renewables Not Far Behind
Whether or not the March numbers continue, it is evident that renewables are not far behind fossil fuels. In the 12 months ending March 31, wind-based power generation had grown 12% year-on-year. Solar was up by 37%. Both have been helped along by state mandates and tax incentives. In addition, price reductions are encouraging more utilities to consider wind and solar over fossil fuels.
Very few expected wind and solar power generation to overtake fossil fuels overnight. Those who truly understand power generation knew it would take decades. But we are getting there. And at some point, fossil fuels will be in the minority while renewables dominate.
Nuclear Remained Steady
While fossil fuels and renewables have been fighting for dominance, nuclear power has remained stable. Overall, it contributes about 19% of our total electricity needs. It is quite possible that additional growth in nuclear will further facilitate the decline of tried-and-true fossil fuels. Coal does not have a bright future, and hydropower only produces about 7% of our total need.
So, what does it all mean? For starters, power generation still requires fossil fuels at this point. The nation's electricity needs are not going down. Furthermore, they are expected to grow exponentially thanks to the advent of AI and the power-hungry data centers necessary to fuel it.
Second, the more mature solar and wind become, the more capable they become. We expect to see renewables generating an increasing share of total electricity in the coming years. As for nuclear, it could further displace fossil fuels or merely be a reliable and stable supplement that provides power when fossil fuels and renewables cannot keep up.
As this all plays out, it is important not to lose sight of how far renewables have come. The fact that they overtook fossil fuels this past March is a bigger deal than most people know.
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